2016年1月16日星期六

Forecast: Internet in future (free service reduced, web space, VPS, online games,blog,Websites quantity) )

Since 2016 year or future:

Many free service will be reduced:
In future, on internet, free service will be reduced more, many services will become paid service.
But Google will still insist to provide enough free service in future.

About web space service & VPS service:
In future, most of web space service will become paid service. All of VPS service will be paid service.
Many web space service, and nearly all of VPS service, when user register a new ID, will order user to register their real name and identity, order user to upload their identity document's photocopy (include: identify, driver's license, passport, resident certificate, effective visa etc.), and order user should be over 18 years of age.

Many service providers (such as: Facebook, Microsoft, amazon and etc.), theri email, drivers (online storage), photo album, website space (or cloud Application space) and anyohter services, the capacity for free use will be reduced more.
A free user use service provider's some free service, such as: opening document on online storage, or opened photo in album, or website space (or cloud Application space)'s content, the data flow for anyother user visiting, will be limited (each day).
The drivers or website space (or cloud Application space)'s downloading speed will be limited for visitors and free user of the service providers. But the paid user on the service providers, can have full speed to download.

New changed:
On many service providers,the capacity of email, drivers, photo album, website space (or cloud Application space) and anyohter, whether free user or paid user, all of these service, the storage space (capacity) will be shared.

Most of online album service,such as: Google photo (Picasa album & Google+ album), Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest, linkedin, Instagram, Flickr and etc. For free user, when each month, will provide additional capacity space for upload photos, not occupy user's other storage space.
For paid user,can get more additional capacity space for upload photos each month.

About games:
Big online games or anyother big games of PC,will be end,will not release new games in future.
But the small leisure games will be still popular.The small leisure games will be still on Android,IOS,Windows phone, or on webpage.Most of small leisure games on webpage will use HTML5 in future.

Advertising on the web page in the near future:
On many website,such as: Gmail,Google driver, Google+, user's managing webpage of Google appengine, Google code, Microsoft outlook mail, Microsoft live sky driver, Facebook, Twitter, linkedin, Pinterest, Flickr, Amazon and some other websites, will have some advertising (maybe not too many),these advertising will not affect browse,and the pictures on the advertising is small,so the advertising can't occupy more data flow.

Advertising on the right side of the webpage


Age restrictions for registe an ID:
When want to registe any website's ID,the user must over 15 years of age in all of developed countries.
When want to registe a Shopping Site's ID,the user must over 16 years of age.
But not force to check user's real name and age.
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About blogs:
Most of blog service providers will stop to server,such as: wordpress.com, tumblr.com, and anyother.
Most of blog service providers in Taiwan and South Korea will stop to service,such as: pixnet, pchome.com.tw, blog.yam.com, blog.xuite.net, Sina blog (Taiwan and HongKong), blog.naver.com, blog.daum.net and etc.
When these blog service providers will stop to service,will provide the function to export user's data.The exported data will be a XML document,in accordance with wordpress.
Blogs will go to end.

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Websites' quantity will be reduced all of the world:
Since future, many small and middle websites will close. Because these small and middle websites will operate more hard in future. And more small and middle websites will not have independent domain. In future, maybe have a little more than (or less than) 2000 websites (independent domain names) on internet.
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Internet company in future:
Many large internet companies will buy more small internet companies.
Many small internet companies will collapse.
Internet industry will happen one company will buy another company continual.
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 About IPv6:
IPv6 will be not popularized still since future. Because the quantity of websites and users on internet will be still relative constant. Although most of operating systems, routers, network operators, many large websites etc. will support IPv6.
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About Classified information website:
1 Craigslist will provide Multi-language interface, include Simplified Chinese and Traditional Chinese.
2 "Kijiji" will start to use new domain name "Kijiji.com" for all of the world. Kijiji will provide Multi-language interface, include Simplified Chinese and Traditional Chinese.
Provision of users:
1 Post all kinds of information on any classified information websites, will be still free.
2 But if user post a information for Toronto, Vancouver, London, Paris, Tokyo, Singapore and some other large cicy in some developed countries, should pay service fee.
3 In future, registe any classified information websites, the user must over 16 years of age. But will still not force to check user's real name and age.
If a user want to release these kinds of information:
Job information (Recruitment)
Release these information, the classified information website must verify the user's real name (include the user's ID, Social Security Number, passport, Permanent resident card, Temporary resident card, driver's license), the user must over 18 years of age, and the user must be a citizen or permanent residents in any developed countries.
If user release job information (Recruitment), the classified information website must verify the user's business license.
If a user want to be checked their real name, or the business license.



---------Some developed countries' intelligence agencies will strengthen to monitor Internet in future---
1 Some developed countries' intelligence agencies,such as: U.S. National Security Agency, CIA, U.S.Immigration (USCIS), Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), MI5 (in UK), and some other intelligence agencies in USA and United Kingdom, a few of intelligence agencies in Germany and France,will strengthen to monitor Internet in future.
2 These intelligence agencies, can direct enter some large websites' server,such as: Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, linkedin, Pinterest and etc. So these intelligence agencies can view user's logined recording (for example, can view each user used IP address when the user logined,and etc.) And can delete user's posts, if one user's posts have illegal information .
3 Many large websites, if need, can visit any developed countries citizen's ID management systems (include permanent residents), to check a real name user's name and their ID whether true or false.




-----------------The worst possible of Internet in the near future--
Guess only!

1 Many of social interaction websites, such as: Facebook, Twitter and etc. User register ID, use the social interaction websites, post any posts, send and receive message, use the instant communication (IM) application will be still free. But the websites will provide only a few capacity for free user to upload photo and video. And the connection rate (download or upload any data) will be limited.
Instagram, linkedin, Pinterest will be same as Facebook or Twitter.

2 Many instant communication (IM) application, if a free user use, maybe can't deposit more larger file to send to another user, and can't record long time voicemail.

3 Many email service and cloud drive (online drive),will provide only a few capacity for free user. Such as: Microsoft outlook mail and OneDrive (Sky drive), Dropbox, Amazon Cloud Drive and etc.

4 Many cloud drive (online drive),if a non-logined guest, or a free user, downloading other user's sharing public documents,the downloading speed will be limited, even can't download large files from the cloud drive (online drive). Maybe except the senior users have been shared files, a non-logined guest or a free user can download it.

5 Free users on Google, or a non-logined guest, if watch Youtube video, maybe can watch less than 1 min each video.

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China will cut internet and any civilian communications(include telephone and cell phone)
Many of less developed countries (such as: Russia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia, Myanmar, India, Pakistan, many Middle East countries, many African countries, Mexico, Colombia, Peru and etc.),the costing of using internet, will be very expensive, many less developed countries not have communications facilities.

In future,China will not provide internet service and any civilian communications(include telephone and cell phone) for people.In China.If people want to call a phone or fax or send any documents (also can send email,or send any documents,or use instant messaging to contact foreign),only can need to go to telecom operator's business hall to do these,and people must be checked their identify.
In China,will have a wide area network in all of China,all of the websites on the WAN must be hosted by government,and all of the websites on the WAN can be browsed on internet in foreign country.





forecast internet in future 2 (Facebook, Google, Linkedin & others. guess only.)

Guess only.

Facebook:
Maybe since the near future, some functions on Facebook will become paid service. For many services on Facebook, when user use client will be free, but many services on web edition will be paid service.
For example:
Register a Facebook ID, post word information posts, send or receive other Facebook users' message, will be still free.
For free user, when will use Facebook web edition, view other Facebook users' posted photos, can view small size photo only. Maybe if will use Facebook client, can view large size or full size photos (other Facebook users' posted). For free user, if will post photos on Facebook, can be got a few space for uploading photos (maybe for client only, web edition can't), or can't be got any free space for uploading photos.
Maybe for free user, Facebook will not support view video (other Facebook users' posted) on web edition, also will not support free user post video on Facebook, even will not support free user view video on client.
Facebook page service will be for company, or celebrity only, and may be paid service.

Facebook in China in future:
Maybe in future, Facebook will build a branch office in China, the branch office will be a joint venture with a China's state-owned capital, or maybe will buy a network company in China to enter China market, and will be controied by relevant departments of China government.
Facebook branch office in China, will operator a Instant Messaging tool, for the main land of China, Hongkong & Macao only. When user will register the Instant Messaging tool, should register user's real name and real identify, and user should be over 16 years of age.
The Instant Messaging tool, will support chat, send word message, send voice message, voice or video call, to contact Whatsapp or Facebook user. But will not support any other function to contact Whatsapp or Facebook.
Other about Facebook:
Facebook will send some Chinese users' data to the government of China, and will ban some keywords on Facebook, because the government of China will bribery and give many benefit for Facebook.






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Google:
Google will still insist to provide free service in future.
Panoramio will be annexed into Google+ album (Picasa album).
For free users, when each month, Google will provide additional capacity space for upload photos or videos, on Google+, or on Google photo album (Picasa album), on Google driver (for photos only) ,not occupy Google user's other storage space.
The Google user's storage space,such as: Gmail, Google driver, Google+ album(Picasa album), Google appengine,(except Youtub
e),will be still shared.
For old free users,if the user have used enough their capacity space,their capacity space will still keep 15GB in future.
User on Youtube, the capacity space for upload videos,will not occupy their other capacity space on Google.
Google App Engine managing webpage, will provide Multi-language interface.
Google App Engine will support PHP and MYSQL, free users on Google also can use it.
Google App Engine will not provide additional storage space. The storage space for Google App Engine will share with Google driver.
Users can use Google driver to upload or mange files for Google App Engine.
Free users on Google can also use Google App Engine, but will be limited accumulative data flow each day, connection speed, and some functions.
Google App Engine will ban Goagent and Wallproxy, because China will cut the International internet in China territory.
When a YouTube video has been age-restricted, a warning screen is displayed and only users who are 16 or older can watch it.
Use Google Wallet, AdSense, AdWords,the user must over 18 years of age, and must be a citizen or permanent residents in any developed countries.
Use Google Wallet, AdSense, AdWords, the user must be checked their real name (include the user's ID, Social Security Number, passport, Permanent resident card, Temporary resident card, driver's license).
User can use VISA, Mastercard, AMEX, JCB & Discover credit card or debit card to pay.

About Google https (ssl) connection in future:
If a guest (not have logined):
When use Google search, Google translation, view any user's Google+ page, view and download file on Google driver, view anyother user's Google code page, use Google map, watching Youtube video etc., will not support https (ssl) connection.
If a user have logined their Google ID:
When mange their Google ID, uer Gmail, use Google+ or view anyother user's Google+ page, mange their Google code or view anyother user's Google code page, use their Google driver or view anyother user's Google driver, use Google search, view Youtube webpage, mange their Youtube channel, mange their Google App Engine, view Google play etc., will be forced to use https (ssl) connection.
But when use Google translation, watching Youtube video, view Google map (view only), downloading applications on Google play, downloading Chrome browser, downloading Android OS or Android's source code, will not support https (ssl) connection.

When Google code will stop to service:
Many open source code project will use personal home page or personal blog to release, and will use free online driver to save the application and source code.



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Linkedin (International edition):
Linkedin will support Multi language interface, include Simplified Chinese and Traditional Chinese.
Linkedin will ban some keywords which the keywords will be avoided by the government of China.
Linkedin will prohibit user to post some content which be avoided by the government of China.
Because Linkedin will have the relationship of interests with the government of China.
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Others (Guess only!):
Pinterest will support Multi language interface, include Simplified Chinese and Traditional Chinese.
Microsoft will buy Linkedin, so if user have a Microsoft live ID, can use Linkedin.
Amazon will buy Twitter.
Yahoo shopping will support Multi language interface, include Simplified Chinese and Traditional Chinese.